Is it just me, or are other people concerned about the state of the world today?
Did you notice that Arnold Schwarzenegger, Guvenator of California just did a 180 on drilling off the coast of California due to the tragedy in the Gulf of Mexico? That is good news and bad news. Why?
First the good news – because drilling off the coast of California could result in similar incidents in the future.
Now the bad news, which is a much longer statement. To quote Arnold, "You turn on the television and see this enormous disaster, you say to yourself, 'Why would we want to take on that kind of risk?'.
I appreciate the use of the word ‘risk’ in his statement. Why? Because when moving oil goes wrong, bad things happen (think Exxon Valdez, etc). Or when mining goes wrong, people die. Both are high risk ventures.
Years ago I worked as a Quality Assurance manager in the automotive parts industry, we supplied Ford, GM, Chrysler and Honda. Part of the requirement in manufacturing components for those companies is the submission of what is called a failure modes and effects analysis, or FMEA for short. Basically, an FMEA is the process of identifying and ranking potential failures in a process or product. It is a structured process that takes into account the ability to detect a failure, the potential severity of a failure and how often a failure might occur. To make an analogy with modes of transportation:
- On a bicycle: the ability to detect a blown tire or failing brakes may be low and may happen from time to time, but the potential severity may be low (i.e. a scraped knee or broken wrist, unless you are going downhill in the Tour de France).
- In a car: the ability to detect a blown tire or failing brakes is very good, but if failure occurs, the severity could be quite high, such as the possibility of death or at least some broken bones and air bag bruises.
- In an airplane: systems are in place to increase the ability to detect a failure relative to a bicycle or car, but if a failure occurs the severity would most likely be much greater than a bike or car failing.
FMEA’s help address failures (most of the time) before potential failures occur, they are also designed to address what to do if failure does occur.
So, herein lies my concern.
We are living in an increasingly competitive global market. As such, companies seem to be taking greater risks in addressing their own risks. Toyota, BP and Wal-Mart come to mind this year alone. Corporate resources are thinning due to the competitive market, dwindling margins (think 2009/2010) and boomers retiring. Less and less people are being paid to hold down the fort. Funding for private and public infrastructure upkeep is suffering as a result (think bridges in Minneapolis and Montreal in the last couple of years). Sadly, all of these variable will lead to more disasters in the future, it is inevitable. And I am an optimist.
So, what to do about it?
A lot of people need to learn fast on how to apply FMEA’s to all kinds of things, such as comparing the risks of fossil fuels vs. renewable – not only in the long term affect on climate change (ok, so a lot of that has been done for sure), but also on the effects on lives and local environments if failure occurs. I.e. what is the impact of a wind turbine or a solar panel failing vs. an oil spill. We need to leverage the power of the Internet and all of the tools that it brings to quickly scale knowledge and creativity to address these kinds of question and issues.
To use an overused term, we need a major paradigm shift. What worked in 1810 did not work in 1910 and what worked in 1910 will not work in 2010. It is time for change, ASAP. Perhaps those whose slogan is ‘Drill Baby Drill’ should take a closer look at the unintended consequences or failure – it ain’t pretty.