I'm writing this in response to Karen's comment to a previous blog asking about video-conferencing (VC) as a substitute or supplement to air travel. For me I believe that it is and will increasingly be a supplement to air travel but not a substitute...

Karen,

Thanks for the comments on my previous blog.

 Aviation is an industry that is a critical part of the global community we live in. ATAG - the Air Tranporation Action Group (www.enviro.aero) states that 85% of all air travel is essential (either for business purposes, or to visit disparate family members). As well, air travel directly and indirectly accounts for the generation of 8% of the world Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  (I'll walk through those numbers in more detail in a future blog)

However, VC and teleco's are now a practical alternative to some face-2-face meetings.

At Bombardier we also video-conference and hold innumerable telephone conferences. My own view is that v-c may be good as a substitute for some but not the majority of face-2-face (f2f) meetings. As a rule, I suggest that in the future maybe at most 1 of 3 meetings that might have been accomplished by flying might be replaced by v-c and teleco's. However, there is a time and a need for f2f meetings. For example, I work with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) on many of their CAEP (Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection) working groups. We have set meetings, alternating between Europe and North America, usually 2 or 4 per year f2f, and in between we do our individual work for the task force and hook up by teleco. So that does reduce costs, but we need to know who we're working with, and spend real time with eachother to build trust and maintain networks. I expect that's true even within an global or x-Canada organization.

Relatedly, when I was working on my PhD more than a decade ago now the researchers and pop'r writing at the time predicted that all we'd be doing a year from now (any now!) would be v-c and teleco's. I'm still waiting for that to happen. I like some of the new technologies but it's still not the same as f2f.

The other comment, getting back to the 8% GDP statistic is just to say that cargo is a large part of the aviation economy, and it either travels by air or it doesn't. Video-conferencing won't make a difference on that segment of the industry. Should we all embrace a shop-locally, eat-locally, 100 mile philosophy, then maybe even the current increasing growth of air-cargo travel will change over time...

In terms of your second query regarding forecasting traffic: it is my sense that there only a few individuals and fewer companies that are cutting back on travel due to concerns about emissions and climate change. However, you are right that they are cutting back because of the cost of travel...In that respect, yes, all aviation forecasts anticipate that air travel in the near term (say 10 years) will be impacted by the rising fuel prices. My forecast, as an example, explicitly anticipates that: the number of older, less fuel-efficient planes in the commercial passenger market will retire at an accelerated rate. It also discusses how, esp. in North America, airlines will 'right size' their fleets, i.e. put appropriate sized aircraft on routes to minimize the number of empty seats. Other options include reducing the frequency of flights on a particular route, reducing weight within the cabin, discouraging passengers from bring "extra" bags along (through fees for 1st and 2nd bags),and making the price of a ticket reflect the actual cost of flying.

Let me know how you find your VC going. I'm interested in others' experience with it. I'd be interested also in knowing how reader's are dealing with increased fuel prices in general, both for business and family travel; are you cutting back, where; are you teleco'ing more, how's that working out?

Steven.